The political and economical developments in the 1970's that affected the bilateral relationship between China and the United States has its roots in the 1950's. According to the World System Theory, China is classified as a late developer and accordingly started its position in the global economy on the outside looking in. As a periphery country, it would be necessary for China to find that opportunity to push their way into the market and ascend to the core. Their initial attempts at a communist economy of equality for the masses based on an agricultural system failed. Colonization did not sit well with the Chinese first by western intruders and then the violent Japanese Imperialist Army. It was natural that China wanted some "alone time" to regroup and follow their own path to recovery.
Unfortunately, the Modernization Theory which believes a country can build from within and jump into the market as an equal player does not fit in this part of the world. They missed the initial industrial thrust and would have to play catch-up and they would need help to do it. They turned first to the USSR, alienating the power players of the global economy. After a falling out in 1960, the Chinese one decade later would soften up to the prospect of Sino-American cooperation.
There are several issues that will nag at the Chinese and Americans regardless of any treaty that is made. Two very different cultures can never have a true 100% understanding. However, the one issue that will not be resolved in the near future and will continue to cause China and America from ever being core "partners" in the global economy is a small southeastern island off China's coast - Taiwan.
I understand the PRC's perspective. The Guomingdao and the Red Army were at civil war establishing their government - much like our own Civil War. This war was interrupted by Japanese colonization. Of the two groups, the Red Army was the one who made efforts to combat the intruders - not successfully, but they would be seen as protector of the people. It was not hard for the "people" and "peasants" of China (the majority of the population) to determine who had their best interests at heart.
So the opposition party hides out on Taiwan and the United States blocks the path. I try to think of our own Civil War and how I would feel if another nation crossed annexed one of the colonies to the Confederates. How intrusive!
I believe it was in 2005 (I thought I had the article in my military files, but I can't find it) when the United States signed another 50-year agreement with Taiwan. So in my opinion, unless we break that agreement and fail AGAIN in the Asian Pacific region as a "protector of democracy" starting the dominoes falling again, we will not have any significant cooperation with China.
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You make an interesting comparison between the situation in China’s civil war and our own. I’m just wondering if it is the Union or the Confederates who we are protecting on Taiwan! Of course, we are protecting the nationalists there because their status as the “real” government of mainland China until the 1970’s when the world could no longer deny that the People’s Republic of China under communist rule was indeed in control of the country. However, Taiwan has developed into a democratic entity with ties to the global market. But the same global market that has made it successful in many ways is also the global market that demands regional and market security – which means not making any waves or overt calls for complete independence from China. So, the status quo remains in Taiwan, but I suspect that Taiwan’s influence as the Republic of China has already peaked and will go into relative decline in relation to China’s. It probably saw its peak in the late 1990’s and went into slight decline thereafter. The United States no longer makes loud claims at protecting Taiwanese security (although it would), more and more countries are dropping recognition of the ROC as the official Chinese government (see the Grenada cricket stadium incident), and Taiwan is taking a more conciliatory stance with China, their natural relatives. In the long term, Taiwan and China, because of China’s strength in the region and economic influence, will probably develop an amicable truce that recognizes Taiwan as an inseparable part of China with a distinctly different system of government, perhaps like Hong Kong. I believe the main point of the Chinese is that Taiwan is recognized as essentially Chinese, made loyal to the Chinese cultural sphere, and cooperative with the mainland government – not adversarial. If this separate peace is achieved, there is little reason to believe that China would take Taiwan by force. If such a peace persists, and the PRC and ROC gravitate naturally more to each other in the coming decade, then we will have seen the last of the saber rattling in the strait. It would appear at the moment that the people of the ROC want to move to a more stable relationship with the PRC. If it can be done, then American security arrangements will pull less influence.
ReplyDeleteI honestly thought that the smooth transition of Hong Kong to China would have facilitated the same in Taiwan. Obviously a different situation as an external country pulled up its stakes to leave; however, I am sure the inhabitants found life rather comfortable under British colonial rule. I was stationed in Bahrain in 1996 and there was still a strong British presence. The King of Bahrain still held MANY of the British political and economic practices in place. Although an Islamic country, this little island is the furthest thing from it when you compare it to Saudi Arabia, just a three-hour bridge ride away.
ReplyDeleteMy point is, The Islamic people lived rather comfortably under British rule and after they left adopted many of their practices. Hong Kong citizens had to move under a communist government after Western rule yet did so in a relatively smooth way. I just thought Taiwan would see this and follow suit.
You are correct though. Now that the Cold War is over and the United States as well as other major players are working with China as partners, Taiwan may find their economy in need of China's parental role.