The terrorist attacks of September 11th were meant to strike at the epicenter of American capitalism. The World Trade Center, a monument to economic strength to foreigners, was a statement. Its true goal was not to bring down man-made structures nor was it to spread panic or fear into the lives of Americans; although those were fantastic side-effects. No, its true target was the economic strength of the United States. Using the Soviet Union as a model, Osama Bin Laden and his chief planners weighed the cause-effect of such an attack. The Soviet Union, most capable military on the globe next to the United States in the 1980s, was decimated in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda predicted correctly that the United States would feel compelled to respond. That response would bring the Americans to the same failing grounds which swallowed up the Soviet ruble just two decades prior. Patiently riding out the initial American military onslaught, Al Qaeda has succeeded in dragging the Americans through a costly war, with little result, and bringing their economy down. Obviously, other factors played a roll, but to not look at the drain in resources caused by September 11th is to avoid a major factor in this current recession.
Where does all this factor in with Asia? To quickly summarize a century of history; the nations of Asia endured colonization from Western powers through World War II. After World War II, the age of colonization ended and the countries became nation-states. Due to the Cold War; however, the United States stayed in the region as the stabilization force. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States remained the world’s only super power. September 11th opened the eyes of the world. The United States was crippled for the first time in a long while. Although supportive of the United States in its initial efforts for the new “GWOT” (Global War on Terrorism), this was the crack in the armor that was needed. The following players in Asia are poised to take advantage.
China’s emergence in the global market has many nations in the region considering a closer option for regional security. Can the United States defend us when it can’t defend itself? Does the United States have the resources to support and defend us when they are being siphoned away by the billions in Iraq and Afghanistan? China is wisely testing the waters to see if they could replace the United States (and the Soviet Union) as the superpower in the east.
In a much darker corner awaits North Korea. Isolated from the global community, North Korea has used this time to rattle the sabers a little louder to get attention from the United States. Militarily, North Korea has been more overt against the United States in the Pacific than in years past – perhaps perceiving weakness. With its current financial troubles, it is extremely possible that North Korea could begin a stealthy proliferation campaign with the top threat in the region – terrorism. North Korean military technology in the hands of regional terrorists could unbalance the entire region.
Terrorism in this region is far more complex and dangerous than elsewhere on the globe. Many of these nations were formed by arbitrary lines from colonizing forces to mark territory. A country like Indonesia for example, spread out among several thousand miles of islands could house hundreds of terrorist cells with freedom to train, build, and import lethal weapons without anyone checking on their status. Countries with ethnic, cultural, or religious tensions heightened due to the arbitrary lines draw decades ago could find themselves in a civil war if a particular group is marked as extremist or a terrorist group. In the United States alone, sensitivity is high when a Muslim is searched at an airport. Imagine that attempt in the Philippines or other multi-ethnic region that has fully embraced the “melting pot” philosophy the United States still struggles with.
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I never considered September 11, 2001 in connection with China, but the tragedy did present China with some options and some reason for concern at the same time. For one, having the United States at its border in Afghanistan and then right across the sea in South Korea and Japan is probably a bit unsettling for them. But I believe you are right, the psychological impact of the attack coupled with the relative chaos it put the U.S. in begged the question of whether or not the United States was indeed superior. And it only became a slippery slope once we got involved in Iraq. I remember when we accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, Serbia, so I’m sure that China looks on our problems in Iraq with little sympathy. Their UN voting record suggests that they are more than willing to play devil’s advocate when it comes to matters concerning Iraq and that they are very interested in fossil fuels there and in the region (competing directly with us). So while they may not be in an overt power grab, our diluted prestige allowed for the Chinese to enter our traditional energy markets with some clout and without the stigma attached to recent military campaigns. They offer an alternative to the U.S. as their politics are not as closely tied to the Middle East and they have a fundamental stance of non-interference in internal affairs of other states (like Sudan). But, their fate is linked to ours, and if they mean what they say, they do not see the value in competing with the United States (at least for the moment) in military power. Economic power is fair game, though. The “peaceful” rise will be interesting to watch. When you consider, with the exception of Tibet and Tiananmen Square, that they have not been interfering heavily in the affairs of other countries, it is both curious, encouraging, and strange at the same time. How much longer can they continue this path, and have they found a way of securing their state without getting tangled in quagmires? Some would suggest they do not have any principles and that all that matters to them are markets and opportunities, making them to be, perhaps, more capitalist than we think! We’ll see how they respond to this economic crisis, though.
ReplyDeleteI also wonder if China is reminded of the insanity of the split up of the Soviet Union. Once released from the shackles of the communist military, the Former Soviet Union countries (all those Stans, Georgia, etc.) erupted in chaos. Yugoslavia and Serbia were perfect examples. Countries with internal ethnic strife, hating their neighbors, just waiting for the day when they weren't under the ownership of a communist military. If China were to loosen those strings at all, areas like Tibet would erupt as well.
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