As the United States embarks on Obama's hopeful agenda for global peace and happiness, China once again reminds us that they are still--well China. Over the past couple decades China has fed the world its new improved friendly facade. Economically, they appear to have opened the gates wide and through these gates are attempting to sell the message that they have turned the corner and are ready to join the global community as a leading super power that can be trusted.
Obama's current administration is diving in this take out box of hope, knowing that as long as the United States plays nice (victim) with China and continues peaceful dialogue that this mammoth sized country will stay within their borders and play the good communist nation-state.
One example is the Obama Administration's request to establish a military-to-military hot line to ensure better cooperation, understanding and to avoid incidents. News Flash - this hotline had been established years ago and those phones were unanswered on 9 March 2009 as the unarmed USNS Impeccable faced an onslaught of harassment by Chinese vessels in the South China Sea. The United States Pentagon, in an attempt to assess the situation from the Chinese perspective met a dead response. Why? Because the only country on the globe who has to answer for aggressive actions is the United States. Furthermore, our quiet acceptance of these actions demonstrates not only to China, but also to North Korea that America is softening. For South Korea and Japan who rely on U.S. strength in the region for their survival - it must be unsettling.
This is not an advocation for a military retaliation on China; however, this incident met very little response from a White House that would rather keep the waters calm. From China's view point, it was an aggressive act by the United States - much as a slow-moving Navy P-3 was acting in agression as it "rammed" a Chinese F-8 fighter in the East China Sea in 2001. Both times, China reacted aggressively to United States activities in international waters - RECOGNIZED international waters. China is the only country to claim 100NM of the Pacific Ocean as well as the entire South China Sea as their soverign waters. How would the world react if the United States drew those same lines in the waterways adjacent to their shores.
The Obama Adminstration's attempts to engage China on an equal basis will fail because the Chinese do not believe they are on equal footing with the United States -- they are higher. Obama and the Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi met three days after the USNS Impeccable incident and although it was mentioned, no warnings from the White House were officially released.
As we move into the next decade, China has economically moved itself to the top of the food chain. Internally, their treatment of humans is atrocious; however, no one wants to rock the boat on that. Their push towards Tawain will increase - their ridiculous claims over the South China Sea and other littoral waters / islands assures us that once they claim something as theirs they will be the bully on the playground. Six-Party talks with North Korea will succeed as long as it is in China's best interest. A missile firing that doesnt breach Chinese airspace will most likely illicit little response. Unfortunately on this last point, even if United States condemns North Korea to the utmost along with Japan and South Korea, its desire to keep the waters still with China will ensure that the reaction will be nothing more than a strongly worded letter signed by Hillary.
Theodore Roosevelt agreed with speaking softly; however, he did it with a big stick at his side. If Obama's true desire is for us to lower our voices and sooth our rivals, he needs to set down the flowers and pick up the stick.
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Hi Tom,
ReplyDeleteAs I read your post, something hit me quite distinctly. The impression that China is reaching parity with the United States or is handling itself as superior to the United States is something remarkable, as the coming decade could bring a point when the United States and China begin to compete more and more for power. Just as the Germans and South Africans think of the United States as a great power, one that is superior to them in many ways (militarily, economically, and in some ways culturally – with more “cool” factor), I wonder if we will see a point in the next 50 years when Americans begin to feel inferior to other states, like China. Of course, I hope not!
I do not think China can be trusted, though. The moment they are able to diversify their markets and move away from dependency on the United States, they will do it. I’m sure they do not have imperial ambitions, but if they have no principles regarding human rights and wish to micromanage everyone’s life while selling their workforce out to the lowest bidder to make toys for rich western kids, then they are probably doomed to fail like West Germany and even the largest of them all, the Soviet Union.
The only problem is China has become an efficient police state and learned from the lessons of the DDR and USSR. While they did not provide material prosperity for the people, they had plenty of political ideology. Now, China is able to provide material prosperity to keep the proletariat content but politically brain-dead while using the revenue to maintain the power of the state.
I think America should be looking elsewhere for trading partners, like in India. We keep complaining about the Chinese, yet American corporations can’t get enough of China and have even adopted some of their oppressive policies just to get access to markets (putting capital above people, such as Google sharing dissident information with the government). I really think that China is more of a radical Capitalist state than a Stalinist, Marxist regime. If you think about it, Western companies are able to exploit low labor and safety standards, the government does not protect the “great people” as it should in the interest of creating more revenue, and a oligarchy is emerging there that is rich beyond the wildest dreams of a rural Chinese.
The boat incident, P-3 collision, satellite shoot down, and turning ships around docking for holiday leave is just a way China pokes us in the eye and reminds us they are not total pushovers. However, they are vulnerable too. Like the saying goes, if you owe the bank $1,000, you’ve got a problem. If you owe the bank $1 million, the bank has a problem. China as so much liquid assets invested in the U.S. government, it would be foolish to create problems right now. However, that debt will not always be there. The challenge for Obama is to not screw up like Kennedy did with the Bay of Pigs just weeks into his administration. They’ll feel it out and keep America safe. Even big hawks like Regan pulled troops out of Lebanon against the advice of the military. So pragmatism knows no party, we have four years to see where our policies take us. In any case, the challenge will be to cast China in a negative light, which won’t be difficult to do if it keeps causing problems.
Part of the problem, of course, is the the US is scared to death that China will stop buying US treasury bills and whatever is left of our economy will plummet. Truth be told, we are at China's mercy and they know it.
ReplyDeleteChina has the manpower, the economy, and quite honestly, they are considerably better educated (studies, for instance of schools in the US and China reveal that the Chinese are, on average, TWO YEARS ahead of US schools -- two years! that is amazing), and we are still mired in economic scandals and preoccupied with TV, celebrity gossip, and more concerned with acquiring the latest consumer item, than we are in acknowledging that we are falling behind - or, as Obama put it recently, we're on a "race to the bottom" and actually doing something about it.
I think this is partly true, however, we rise and fall together, as is obviously the case as China lays off workers and has slowed high-tech exports while moving commodity production back in to urban centers. Previously, low value production had been displaced by high-end production, but now that has reversed. Also, many of the factory workers have not returned to urban areas for work, as there are fewer jobs.
ReplyDeleteFinally, the divide between rural and urban China is massive. There are in effect two Chinas, and when there exists such a situation, it can lead to instability. While the middle class urbanites are enjoying a higher quality of life, little has changed for the millions in the hinterlands. This further necessitates the police state.
Also, China is making the same mistakes the U.S. made in its search for resources: courting corrupt and unpopular governments for resources. If China has a blind policy, there will be consequences.
As for us and our celebrity gossip, I suppose each society proletariat is preoccupied with idleness and idolatry. Americans choose to watch American Idol and football (they watched TV game shows and other things like Ed Sullivan in the 50's, too) and in China you can do anything but think outside the party line. However, we can express ourselves. Kim Jung Il can get over a million dancers to move in perfect synchronization, but does that make North Korea superior to us?
Our race to the bottom has more to do with an obsession with materialism, and if that has not already begun in urban China, I would be highly surprized. If anything, they will hit shallow consumerism (that carries no notion of consumer responsibility or morals) just as we do. In any case, it is all part of the rise and fall; the complacence of comfort replaced by those willing to work and rise.