On the Tonight Show a couple nights ago, President Obama told Jay Leno that his bowling game had improved since his disastrous sub-100 game during his campaign. As the audience laughed, I wondered, "How good does he juggle?" As China and India continue their ascension into power in Asia, the White House is going to be forced to work with both closely to ensure United States interests in the region are secured.
United States interests in regards to India, require a delicate juggling act of India and Pakistan. India is a growing military power in the region and one we must work closely with. They are the only nation in the region with possible bluewater navy powers. They can control the entrance to the Persian Gulf - an area critical to the oil interests of the U.S. as well as the prime naval supply port for its troops stationed in the Middle East. Yet, India's arch enemy Pakistan recently provided a key tactical position to the United States' efforts in the Global War on Terror. In an unprecedented and shocking move, Pakistan willingly opened air space and air bases to the United States for operations in Afghanistan. The U.S. ability to run quick tactical strikes from Pakistan (had it not diverted to Iraq) could have finalized operations against the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden. With their efforts refocused to this region again, Pakistan will be a key ally for the White House - to the chagrin of India. India has worked under the assumption that the United States "had its back" in respects to Pakistani aggression; now, they have to wonder where the loyalties would lie if a war between the two broke out.
In regards to China the issue is always Taiwan. DefenseNews (March 2 2009) detailed an important milestone in Pentagon-PLA relations as David Sedney, deputy assistant defense secretary visited to improve relations. Although reports from the meetings indicate it was one of the most positive in years, General Qian Lihua, director general of the Foreign Affairs Office, said, "We expect the U.S. side to take concrete measures for the resumption and development of our military ties" (page 10). Read - "Stop working with Taiwan!" How does Obama juggle the old Cold War agreement that brought the budding hope of democracy to the tiny island of Taiwan with the necessity of the White House to be on positive terms with the largest Communist government in the world?
The United States needs to have a good working alliance with China and India as they rise to power in Asia. President Obama; however, must be able to successfully juggle his relations with these rising powers while also maintaining credibility with their most hated rivals.
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Hi Tom,
ReplyDeleteYou raise an interesting stress point between the U.S., Pakistan, and India. It’s interesting that many of our most important partners in the world are Muslim states like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan – two very controversial nations that have spawned terrorism yet remain our friends. So India is probably watching closely. However, I believe in the long term, India offers the most hope as a stable partner for peace and economic opportunity. We probably haven’t gone into India gushing over it and praising it and signing huge public deals as to keep Pakistan focused on its internal problems and allowing us to conduct operations there. It is a very delicate balancing act, indeed. However, we must keep long term goals in check with short term gains. The current strategy may be the best of all of the bad options, as we do not want Pakistani nukes becoming endangered nor lose access to Afghanistan.
I’m not sure what will become of Taiwan. I remember we posted about this earlier, and it seems like the two will eventually coalesce. The Taiwanese government has made gestures of reconciliations towards China and the situation has thawed somewhat. But there is a big difference between reconciliation and full submission. I suspect Taiwan would eventually be brought into the PRC sphere of influence, but under an agreement like that for Hong Kong. I wonder if the ROC citizens would be willing to give up their freedom for more inclusion into the PRC?
Excellent point on Taiwan. I believe that will be the easiest of the two (India/Pakistan, China/Taiwan) because the Cold War relic China is much different than the quasi-capitalist version we see today. China is very influencial in international organizations keeping Taiwan from being mentioned as a nation. This would allow (not that we would do it) Obama to break this security agreement with Taiwan without too much international backlash. The Taiwanese (ROC) would be upset over it, but we wouldnt be facing global scrutiny for ceasing aid to a "nation" that the world doesnt view as a "nation".
ReplyDeleteWith the United States losing Central Asian support for Operation Enduring Freedom (20 Feb Kyrgystan evicted us from Manas Air Base) Pakistan is even more of an immediate value logistically. But you are right, the democracy in the region is India and I do believe that although Russia seems to be pressing its rights a bit to our dismay (2 billion dollar economic stimulus package to the Krygs as they evict us - hmmmmm) they (Russia) have just as much interest at keeping the Taliban and Al Qaeda at bay as we do. My point is that tactically, Pakistan is critical to us now; however, the strategic view would hold India in our best interest.